VFR Into IMC Through the Lens of Behavioral Economics

Decision-making can be the difference between life and death in all types of aviation, but in general aviation (GA), where most of the flying is conducted as single-pilot operations, the decision-making of one individual becomes fundamentally important. It is critical to consider, first, why pilots make bad decisions that can ultimately lead to weather-related aviation accidents or incidents; and second, whether a better understanding of weather-related decision-making can inform regulations that will improve decision-making and consequently reduce the frequency of pilot-error accidents. Behavioral economics (BE) aims to better understand individual decision-making to model decision-making pathways. As individual decision-making is central to aviation safety, better modeling of decision-making pathways should be a central aim not just for pilots, but also for aviation regulators, such as the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) in Australia. While there has been little analysis of pilot decision-making using BE, we argue that BE, with its focus on predictive models of individual decision-making, provides a rich framework to understand pilot decision-making and inform more targeted regulation. This argument is in four parts. The first part identifies that there is an ongoing safety issue with visual flight rules (VFR) pilots flying into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). The second part introduces some of the core concepts of BE, such as the rejection of perfect rationality and the reliance upon certain behavioral biases in decision-making. We argue that VFR into IMC is an appropriate context in which to apply BE as there is an identifiable measure of a pilot’s welfare and concerns around paternalism fall short when dealing with protecting the welfare of those likely to be impacted by a pilot’s decision-making, such as passengers and aircraft owners. The third part reviews the existing research applying behavioral models of decision-making in respect of VFR into IMC and identifies three behavioral biases that—among others—can lead to poor decision-making: (i) environmental literacy, (ii) overconfidence, and (iii) prospect theory. The final part briefly introduces some potential avenues for BE to inform regulatory reform, including better education of pilots and regulators in respect of the psychological factors to which pilots may fall victim, as well as more directed training for pilots to address the environmental literacy concerns identified in this part. We conclude that the regulatory environment should be reformulated to adequately account for predictable behavioral biases

Scrutinizing the impact of policy instruments on adoption of agricultural conservation practices using Bayesian expert models

Policy instruments—such as regulation, financial incentives, and agricultural extension—are commonly applied by governments to promote sustainable agricultural practices and tackle ecosystem degradation. Despite substantial investment, little data are available to gauge the impact of evolving policy mixes. We constructed a Bayesian network model to explore relationships between pol-icy instruments, contextual factors, and adoption. Applying a series of scenarios, we present examples of how different instruments influence adoption and how their effectiveness is shaped by contextual factors. Scenarios highlight that the effect of policy instruments is often modest, and constrained by diverse practice and population characteristics. These findings allow us to reflect on the role of policy instruments, and the conditions necessary to support practice change. For example, our findings raise questions about the role of financial benefits versus financial capacity, and highlight the potential importance of concepts such as mental bandwidth in shaping both motivation and capacity to adopt

Sex difference and intra-operative tidal volume: Insights from the LAS VEGAS study

BACKGROUND: One key element of lung-protective ventilation is the use of a low tidal volume (VT). A sex difference in use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) has been described in critically ill ICU patients.OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether a sex difference in use of LTVV also exists in operating room patients, and if present what factors drive this difference.DESIGN, PATIENTS AND SETTING: This is a posthoc analysis of LAS VEGAS, a 1-week worldwide observational study in adults requiring intra-operative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals in 29 countries.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Women and men were compared with respect to use of LTVV, defined as VT of 8 ml kg-1 or less predicted bodyweight (PBW). A VT was deemed 'default' if the set VT was a round number. A mediation analysis assessed which factors may explain the sex difference in use of LTVV during intra-operative ventilation.RESULTS: This analysis includes 9864 patients, of whom 5425 (55%) were women. A default VT was often set, both in women and men; mode VT was 500 ml. Median [IQR] VT was higher in women than in men (8.6 [7.7 to 9.6] vs. 7.6 [6.8 to 8.4] ml kg-1 PBW, P < 0.001). Compared with men, women were twice as likely not to receive LTVV [68.8 vs. 36.0%; relative risk ratio 2.1 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.1), P < 0.001]. In the mediation analysis, patients' height and actual body weight (ABW) explained 81 and 18% of the sex difference in use of LTVV, respectively; it was not explained by the use of a default VT.CONCLUSION: In this worldwide cohort of patients receiving intra-operative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery, women received a higher VT than men during intra-operative ventilation. The risk for a female not to receive LTVV during surgery was double that of males. Height and ABW were the two mediators of the sex difference in use of LTVV.TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01601223

A new legal avenue for pricing GHG emissions? To trade or to tax?

In a September 2010 media release the Prime Minister of Australia presented the terms of reference for the newly established Multi-Party Climate Change Committee. Although the Committee is charged with considering climate change mitigation measures in general, specifically the Committee must consider an appropriate mechanism for the establishment of a carbon price. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the mechanisms to be considered by the Climate Change Committee, including the use of emissions trading and carbon levies in other jurisdictions. This article argues that for any effective investigation of a carbon price for Australia to occur, a thorough knowledge of other jurisdictions’ methods for carbon pricing is essential

The WTO, the national security exception and climate change

Article XX has been a valuable instrument to justify exceptions from the anti-discrimination provisions of the GATT 1994. In general, this Article is considered by experts to be the most likely defence for any climate change mitigation measure in breach GATT 1994 obligations. That assumption is not in dispute here; rather, this article considers the requirements of the Article XX exceptions, but also explores the conditions of the National Security exception contained in Article XXI. Although it is possible that this exception could be used for climate change mitigation measures, this paper argues that it is unlikely that the National Security exception could be legitimately applied in these circumstances without member agreement to the contrary

The border adjustments of the Australian clean energy package

Climate change is a global challenge. For this reason, it has been suggested that a global solution is necessary. In Australia the Clean Energy Package has been introduced with a purpose of reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory, and responding to international obligations. This Package contains the institutional framework for an emissions trading scheme. The Package also includes amendments for other existing legal arrangements. These arrangements include a greenhouse gas emissions price on certain imported products. With this in mind the purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to consider the border adjustments and import charges of the Clean Energy Package and determine whether these comply with the rules of the World Trade Organization. Second, to analyse whether a border tax adjustment could be included in the Package for emissions intensive trade exposed (EITE) products. This paper concludes that, although the existing arrangements appear to comply with the WTO legal requirements, a border adjustment on EITE products could not be implemented in a manner that would comply with these rules

Emissions trading and the GATS financial services provisions: A case study of the Australian carbon pricing mechanism

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether greenhouse gas (GHG) tradeable instruments will be classified as financial products within the scope of the World Trade Organization (WTO) law and to explore the implications of this finding. Design/methodology/approach This purpose is achieved through examination of the units of the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM), namely eligible emissions units. These units are analysed through the lens of the definition of financial products provided in the General Agreement for Trade in Services (the GATS). Findings This paper finds that eligible emissions units will be classified as financial instruments, and therefore the provisions that govern their trade will be regulated by the GATS. Considering this, this paper explores the limitations that are introduced by the Australian legislation on the trade of eligible emissions units. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited in its analysis to the Australian CPM. In order to draw conclusions on the issues raised by this analysis it is necessary to consider the WTO requirements against an operating emissions trading scheme. The Australian CPM presents a contemporary model of an appropriate scheme. Originality/value The findings in this paper are crucial in a GHG constrained society. This is because emissions trading schemes are becoming popular measures for pricing GHG emissions, and for this reason the units that are traded and surrendered for emissions liabilities must be classified appropriately on a global scale. Failing to do this could result in differential treatment that may be contrary to the intentions of important global agreements, such as the WTO covered agreements

Labor's biodiversity market scheme needs to be planned well - or it could lead to greenwashing

Businesses and philanthropic organisations are looking to invest in projects to protect and restore nature. We need to make this easier.Which major political party’s minister said this? If you guessed Labor, correct – it was environment minister Tanya Plibersek last week. But the phrase is strikingly similar to one made by the Coalition’s David Littleproud.In fact, Labor’s proposed biodiversity market borrows heavily from the previous government’s approach. In brief, landholders would be able to buy and sell biodiversity certificates. A farmer seeking to clear land could buy a certificate created by another farmer who has restored native vegetation elsewhere.The federal government should tread very carefully here. New South Wales’ environmental offset scheme has been slammed for failing to do what it was meant to do, and with the major problems in Australia’s carbon offset program.If not designed well, schemes like this can very easily be gamed and fail to actually achieve their goals

Paying the carbon price: The subsidisation of heavy polluters under emissions trading schemes, by Elena de Lemos Pinto Aydos

The effects associated with climate change are often described as catastrophic, with threats to human, animal and planetary existence widely reported. A problem of this magnitude, which sweeps indiscriminately across the globe, brings with it a great number of scientific challenges and the need to both develop and share technology. However, alongside these challenges are also a great number of competing interests, which at their core are essentially economic concerns. One reason for these concerns, and the attention that is afforded to them, is that many of the solutions proffered for this phenomenon have been designed specifically to have an economic impact and bring about broad-based changes to the current status quo of society. One central message of Paying the Carbon Price is that in order to address climate change in any meaningful way the status quo simply cannot be maintained